March has arrived and brings memories of the pandemic’s beginning. Only a year ago, we were implementing new safety policies, and many of us were transitioning to remote work, without knowing how long these accommodations would be needed. While it is still not clear when "normal" will return, there is some good news regarding the impact of our prevention efforts. As we reflect on the past year and the path forward to recovery, the BHC is turning its focus to opportunities to build resilience among individuals, organizations, and communities in a post-pandemic world.

A quick look at this NPR site shows the severity of each state's coronavirus outbreak, with an easy toggle to track vaccines, new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. New infection rates vary across the country and are organized into four risk categories of  green, yellow, orange, or red based upon the number of new daily cases per 100,000 people. Categorized as yellow, Missouri is reported to have eight new cases per 100,000 people and 476 average daily cases as of March 3, indicating the need for continued social distancing and mask usage. Along with Oregon and Hawaii, Missouri is among the lowest states for new infections, although community spread has yet to be stopped. All of Missouri’s bordering states are experiencing higher rates of new infections, ranging from 13 to 30 new daily cases per 100,000. Arkansas is categorized as a red risk level, having unchecked community spread, along with ten other states. New York and New Jersey tie for the highest at 38 new daily cases per 100,000 people.

As of the date of this post, COVID-19 vaccines have reached 15% of Americans, and about 1.7 million vaccines are being administered per day. Missouri lags a bit at only 13.6% of residents having had one or more vaccine, with state leaders expecting that everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by July. Dr. Fauci reports that if 75-80% of Americans accept vaccination when offered, the U.S. should reach herd immunity by the end of second quarter 2021 and be close to our previous “normal” by the end of 2021. 

The current data on new infections suggests that Missouri’s collective commitment to prevention is working. Thanks to everyone for remaining vigilant. The data also shows that the rate of spread in states can change from week to week. Staying the course is essential. So is building our reserves so as to be positioned for the next novel virus or other public health challenge. 

The BHC's Community Forum on April 29 has been designed to identify steps that we can take as individuals, businesses, and communities to build resilience in a post-pandemic world. Keynote speaker Dr. Martin Seligman (also known as the "father of positive psychology") will share the science of fostering personal and organizational resilience, as well as growth following trauma, rather than stress. The CDC’s Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases, Dr. Jay Butler, will follow with insights on lessons learned from COVID-19 and opportunities to strengthen our public health and primary care infrastructures for future infectious threats. A panel of local leaders will close the event, reflecting on a shared to-do list to support recovery in the St. Louis region, including economic stability, health care strategies, and technological innovation. Registration for this virtual conference is free for BHC members, and we hope that you will join us for an upbeat morning focused on creating a better future. 

Warm Regards,

Louise Y. Probst,

BHC Executive Director